Thursday’s night’s game between the Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys offers a stark contrast in style and talent. Accordingly, bookmakers have marked the home team as a sizable favorite.
Staying away from the spread, let’s take a look at four player props in Seahawks vs. Cowboys on Thursday Night Football.
Brandin Cooks over 3.5 receptions (-120 at FanDuel)
After a slow start to the season, Cooks’ usage rate is starting to pop for the Cowboys. Over the last three weeks, he has been targeted 19 times (16 receptions), eclipsing what he received in the previous five-plus games.
Through his first seven games, he had more than four receptions just two times. In the last three weeks he’s had at least four catches twice (and three in the other game).
The slow start appears to be a case of a player trying to integrate himself with a new team and quarterback. Cooks might not be Dak Prescott’s WR1, but he’s becoming a bigger part of the passing game each week.
Colby Parkinson anytime TD (+1400 at FanDuel)
Against one of the NFL’s best pass rushes, it will be difficult for Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith to accomplish much through the air.
If Seattle is going to score, it could very well be by a tight end. That’s because the Cowboys have shown a vulnerability in the middle of the field, ranking 21st by DVOA in that area. They also rank 25th against tight ends.
While not Smith’s main tight end target overall, Parkinson – with just 20 targets on the entire season – is the guy he looks for in the red zone. Parkinson has five red-zone targets to just one for Noah Fant, who is TE1 in Seattle’s offense, just not near the end zone.
The likelihood of Parkinson – or any Seattle player for that matter – scoring a touchdown isn’t great, but at +1400, the value is just too good to not bet.
Tyler Lockett under 4.5 receptions (-120 at FanDuel)
No Seattle receiver has more catches than Lockett this season, but he’s hit this line in just six of the 11 games he’s played – the same number of games Dallas has allowed an opposing receiver to have five or more catches.
Against man coverage – what the Cowboys run at the NFL’s third-highest rate – it gets worse for Lockett. In man, Smith has targeted DK Metcalf 35% of the time, and Lockett (20%) drops to WR3 behind rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba (23%).
And all of that might not even matter against a Cowboys defense that is allowing the second-fewest offensive plays per game (59.4) and the third-fewest pass attempts. In other words, the Seattle offense might be watching much of the game from the bench
Zach Charbonnet anytime TD (+145 at Caesars)
Early on against the 49ers last week, the Seahawks had lots of issues with their passing game, which could push them to a more run-heavy approach against the Cowboys.
Kenneth Walker is doubtful to play, so Charbonnet should get most of Seattle’s carries.
Dallas comes into the game with a top-10 rush DVOA defense and has surrendered just six rushing touchdowns on the season. It won’t be easy for Charbonnet but if Seattle is to score, it will likely be on the ground, and if it comes on the ground, it will likely be the rookie running it in.