10 thoughts on the Chicago Bears after their first win against an NFC North foe under coach Matt Eberflus and their first overall in the division since Nov. 25, 2021 — more than two years ago.
You can’t make any sweeping conclusions from the result Monday night at U.S. Bank Stadium after Cairo Santos’ 30-yard field goal with 10 seconds remaining lifted the Bears to a 12-10 victory over the Minnesota Vikings — especially if you’re resisting weekly referendums on the coach, the quarterback and others. But, boy, everyone involved needed this outcome.
1. Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell was asked about the conservative approach at the end, and second-guessing the play caller is one of the first orders of business after a loss, right?
The Vikings had just produced their second takeaway in a little more than six minutes of the fourth quarter when safety Josh Metellus stripped quarterback Justin Fields and linebacker Anthony Barr recovered on the Bears 43-yard line.
The Vikings had gone up 10-9 on the only touchdown of the game — a 17-yard pass from Joshua Dobbs to tight end T.J. Hockenson — and were in position to put the game away with 3:28 remaining. A first down might have done the trick. Two for sure.
On first-and-10, they ran Alexander Mattison straight ahead into a wall of defenders. No gain. On second down, the Vikings thought they could press the edge on the right side, but Mattison got turned back inside a little and gained one yard. Bears coach Matt Eberflus, who wasted his first timeout of the second half on an ill-advised replay challenge, used his second.
Do these type of play calls in similar circumstances sound familiar? That set up third-and-9 from the Bears 42 for Dobbs, who had thrown a career-high four interceptions. Play it safe with 2:41 remaining and force the Bears to use their final timeout? Or try to put the game away?
“We ended up having a play with a can on it,” said O’Connell, explaining the Vikings could change the call at the line based on pre-snap reads. “If we got the look we wanted, maybe we get a chance to push the ball downfield. They kind of played a soft zone and not the best execution.”
The kill turned the play into a screen at the line of scrimmage to Brandon Powell, and weak-side linebacker T.J. Edwards blew it up immediately for a 1-yard loss. Vikings punter Ryan Wright got off a bad kick on fourth down, and the Bears took over at their 22 with 2:29 remaining, needing a field goal to win. The Vikings probably had the Bears where they felt most comfortable.
That’s when Fields stepped up and made plays to pull out a win in a spot where he and the offense have stumbled, especially over the last two seasons. He scrambled left and found D.J. Moore for a 16-yard gain on a huge first play. At that point, the Bears needed about 25 yards to be in range for Cairo Santos, and that’s why there was no rush to get the next play — a 5-yard scramble by Fields — off before the two-minute warning.
A zone-read keeper by Fields moved the ball to the Vikings 49. Then things got interesting. Fields threw the ball away on first down and — after holding the ball in the pocket forever on a play that took nine seconds off the clock — he moved left and launched the ball deep out of bounds before being taken down by Danielle Hunter. The angle in the press box made it look like intentional grounding; the television angle wasn’t as incriminating, but the Vikings sideline was hot.
“We got called (for grounding) on a similar play,” O’Connell said. “How were the plays different? That’s really what I was asking in that moment. Based upon what transpired from there, there is a lot of what-ifs you can ask. The very next play they made the play.”
It looked like wide receiver Tyler Scott was uncovered over the middle before Fields fled the pocket and sent the ball sailing in the vicinity of the bench. Like O’Connell said, on the next snap the Bears came up with the play they needed: the big shot that turned the game on third-and-10.
A Vikings front that harassed Fields thoroughly in the Week 6 meeting at Soldier Field rushed only four. He had time. He saw the play clearly. The Bears had three receivers to the right of the formation. Darnell Mooney ran a clear-out, taking strong safety Harrison Smith with him, away from the play. Scott ran a deep corner route and safety Camryn Bynum followed him.
Moore had a deep in-breaker, so he was running away from cornerback Byron Murphy and it looked like Metellus sort of got lost in space. Fields stepped up and delivered the ball on a rope, and it turned into a 36-yard gain — the longest of the night for either side.
“Wide open,” said Moore, who was targeted 13 times and made 11 receptions for 114 yards.
All that pressure the Vikings brought in the first meeting? The hits and shots on Fields? They brought some here, but Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores was bluffing too.
“I could feel the window kind of open up there,” said tight end Cole Kmet, who was on the left side of the formation. “They just kind of dropped out. Good play call for that scenario. They were doing a lot of pressed-up (looks), bailing out. When you do that on defense, you’re unsound for a second here and there and windows are created.
“If Justin is able to see it, he can deliver it. Huge.”
Fields said the play went back to training camp, when the offense worked on two-minute situations. The coverage couldn’t have worked out better.
“The only player that was in the middle right there was Metellus,” Fields said. “And he had no idea where DJ was. Our O-line did a great job protecting, great play call by Luke (Getsy). We’ve hit it in practice multiple times on our defense and in the two-minute situation, so just going back to those banked reps and everybody succeeding when we needed.”
That basically won the game for the Bears. It was first down at the Vikings 13-yard line. The Bears kneeled, forcing O’Connell to use his remaining timeouts, and then Santos, who had a rare miss from 48 yards in the first quarter, connected on his fourth field goal of the game.
Where the Bears had stumbled in blowing a fourth-quarter lead in Detroit in Week 11 and at home in Week 4 to the Denver Broncos, they came through this time.
You can understand why O’Connell liked having his defense on the field at the end of the game, especially after Dobbs had struggled so much. The Vikings had played well to that point, but Fields created time with his athleticism to get the completion to Moore on the first play, and then the route ran Moore wide open on the decisive big gain, which Fields delivered on a line.
It brings Moore to 70 receptions for 1,003 yards on the season. With five games remaining, he will have some impressive numbers to end his first year with the organization.
The win improves the Bears to 4-8 as they enter their bye. Maybe you will hear Eberflus mention the team is 4-4 in its last eight games, but I’d mute that if you do. Once upon a time, they were 2-2 in their previous four. The focus needs to be on finding a way to win consecutive games as the Bears prepare for a Week 14 rematch with the Lions.
Remember: Conservative calls happen from time to time. They’re not always the right call, but I certainly understand why the Vikings did it and in the end, the Bears were able to capitalize in a bizarre game.
“Truly,” Moore said, emphasizing the suggestion it was bizarre. “We had a bunch of takeaways by our defense. Then we had the two fumbles and it was a lot of back and forth. Go score or try to set up a field goal. Get us in field-goal range and let Cairo do what he do.”
“You look at the Eagles and (Sunday) night,” said Kmet, referring to a rally from 10 down in the fourth quarter against the Buffalo Bills and needing a 59-yard Jake Elliott field goal at the end of regulation to lead to a 37-34 overtime victory. “They would probably say they’re not playing well throughout the game. They stay in it, stay in it, stay in it, and then they find a way to win.
“That’s what this league is. The gap is just so small between teams. You’ve got to find ways to win it.”
Ultimately the Bears did win in a position they’ve previously found unthinkable ways to stumble.
2. It was great for Justin Fields to be able to atone for the two late fumbles with the late drive to rally the offense.
The big throw to DJ Moore was the key, but you really need a productive start to the drive. When Fields kept that first snap alive and created time and space for a 16-yard play, it gave the Bears a needed boost.
In the big picture — when the team is going to weigh everything and the future of the position — this singular game probably doesn’t help the case of Fields, who has turned the ball over seven times in the fourth quarter alone this season. Those in stark disagreement probably will rip offensive coordinator Luke Getsy as soon as they’re done tearing into me, but let me share a little something football people will tell you:
“You can learn a lot about what the coach thinks of the quarterback by what they’re calling.”
That cut both ways in this game, didn’t it? The Vikings dial up a ton of different pressures under defensive coordinator Brian Flores, and against that many exotic looks, there’s an element of trying to avoid the kind of big mistake that will lose a low-scoring affair.
Fields handled what the Vikings did up front better than in the first meeting and his line was up to the task. Running back Roschon Johnson looked good in pass protection, impressive for a rookie. Press box statistics credited the Vikings with seven hits on Fields, one fewer than they had in the game at Soldier Field. It didn’t seem similar in that regard, did it?
Fields completed 27 of 37 passes for 217 yards. He did a nice job creating time to connect with Johnson on third-and-2 on the first series of the game. Tight end Cole Kmet was basically uncovered after he engaged as a blocker and then leaked out on a fourth-and-10 play when the Bears weren’t quite in field-goal range. Good play, wide-open receiver. Fields missed Darnell Mooney wide open on the left side on third-and-14 and was left of Moore on third-and-9 on the next series.
Seventeen pass attempts were at or behind the line of scrimmage, and five passes traveled 10 yards in the air beyond the line of scrimmage. Why? Refresh yourself on what happened the first time these teams met and then consider they were playing in a louder environment this time.
“It just comes with the pressure,” Kmet said. “You don’t know if they’re coming. Now, they ended up bailing out and you saw where they adjusted where their ends are jumping out. So you put some dangerous throws there on the screen passes.
“It’s tough. They kind of get you here and there sometimes. It’s kind of a cat-and-mouse game. They’re either bringing everybody or dropping everybody, so you’ve got to just have answers for everything.”
Remember, Fields held the ball too long in the first meeting. That’s how he got hit in the back of the head on the first snap. And that’s how he got hit and suffered the right thumb dislocation that cost him four games.
I bet Getsy would like to have a few of those shield screen calls back. But again, there’s a reason he wanted the ball out quick and short. It’s pretty similar to the reason Kevin O’Connell, on the Vikings sideline, wanted the ball out quick and short.
Fields made enough plays at the end — he also had a game-high 59 rushing yards on 12 carries — but this was an average opponent with a below-average quarterback missing its best player in wide receiver Justin Jefferson.
This isn’t a referendum, but I’ve been pretty consistent with how I’ve evaluated the QB situation. Five games remain. The ultimate evaluation — the only one that really matters — will be based on the entirety of the season. This can’t look like high-level quarterback play to the decision makers at Halas Hall.
3. We’ve found a unicorn.
You’ll probably remember where you were when you saw it too. How many times have you been watching a game when the network flashes a graphic about what the analytics say the coach’s decision should be on fourth down and the model says the team should PUNT?
Seriously. Every time I see the graphic, it seems permastuck on GO FOR IT.
That’s why Kevin O’Connell’s brassy decision at the outset of the third quarter to go for it on fourth-and-7 from his 49-yard line really stood out. This was on the fifth snap of the second half. The game was tied 3-3 and the Vikings surely felt fortunate not to be down 10 or more points after being dominated in many key categories through the first two quarters.
Easy call. Punt and pin, right?
“Crazy, dude,” Bears free safety Eddie Jackson told me. “We thought they were just trying to make us jump offside so they could (then take a delay penalty) and do a deeper punt. We was like, ‘No way.’ Then they hiked the ball and we’re like, ‘They’re really going for it.’ They were desperate. They had to try to do something and get it going.”
It seemed like a decision based on frustation for O’Connell. The Vikings narrowly missed a deep shot to Jordan Addison on their first play from scrimmage. Everything after that was a complete slog. The Bears stuffed the run. Joshua Dobbs couldn’t get anything going with his legs and Minnesota was 0-for-4 on third down. The Bears had a 2-to-1 advantage in time of possession in the first half and should have been halfway to a blowout.
So punt, right? No. Dobbs tried hitting T.J. Hockenson on an out route and it was close. Nickel cornerback Kyler Gordon closed and made a physical play to stop the tight end about a half-yard short of the line to gain.
I’m not criticizing the analytics but simply saying it seems like the numbers always say go for it.
“Trusting them in that moment, to the way they played, trusting them to try to give our offense a spark,” O’Connell explained. “I just thought it was critical. Middle eight right there, we had gotten the three points to end the half, a chance to take control of the game even though we hadn’t played well.
“I thought it was worth the risk in that moment, giving our guys an opportunity to make a play for our team, and we just came up a little short on the play. My trust in our defense has a lot to do with that decision.”
The middle eight O’Connell referenced is about teams wanting to score to end the first half — the Vikings got a 34-yard field goal from Greg Joseph on the final play of the second quarter — and then get the ball and score to open the third quarter. It was a chance for a 10- or six-point swing.
It backfired as the Bears took over at midfield and used a 34-yard, 10-play drive to go ahead 6-3 on a 39-yard field goal by Cairo Santos, the key play being a 10-yard draw by Justin Fields on third-and-5 from the 39.
Let this serve as a reminder the next time you’re watching a game and wondering how close the analytics might be on a fourth-down decision in a close ball. The Vikings needed 7 yards and the model was barely in favor of a punt there.
4. Cornerbacks coach Jon Hoke has been around a long time.
Long enough to know it’s important to have rookies on the field when they’re ready and certainly long enough to understand what to look for in younger players.
The last time I spoke to Hoke, I asked what struck him most about fifth-round draft pick Terell Smith. Hoke paused for a few moments reflecting before choosing the word.
“Reliable.”
That’s not always the first word you think of about a rookie in the NFL, especially at that position.
After getting 13 snaps the week before in Detroit when he was rotated in, Smith was forced into a bigger role versus the Vikings with fellow rookie Tyrique Stevenson inactive with an ankle injury. It was a big spot for Smith, who played at the University of Minnesota and had a good number of friends and former teammates at the game.
He finished with a game-high eight tackles, all solos, and was called for illegal contact on one play. Knowing Hoke, he will find a handful of plays he will be blunt with Smith about in terms of improvement.
Smith’s play and what Stevenson does in the final five games could have a bigger impact on the future than you might think. The Bears need to set a value when it comes to Jaylon Johnson at the end of the year and create their own contract number.
The greatest determining factor in that figure will be Johnson’s play. But don’t think for a second that how the rookies finish won’t be an element in the equation. If I’m general manager Ryan Poles, I want to be working from a position of depth and strength at cornerback.
The rookies could be lights out in the next five games and it still might be advisable to try to keep Johnson. But the calculus shifts a bit on the team side if those guys are trending upward, and you shouldn’t forget Smith.
He was impressive at the outset of training camp and it looked like there might be a legitimate competition with Stevenson for the job opposite Johnson. But Smith got banged up, missed about three weeks and lost some steam. He spent 4 1/2 weeks on the sideline recently battling mononucleosis. He was out of the facility for 11 days in that span and lost 10 pounds quickly.
The Bears were cautious about working him back in, but he doesn’t look like he’s missed a beat.
“From Day 1, when he stepped out, this guy, he’s kind of special,” free safety Eddie Jackson said of Smith. “You see plays he can make. And it’s just unfortunate because during training camp he got hurt and then he came back and ended up getting sick. Wrong time for that. But he’s a special kid. Smitty is a quiet dude, but he’s very talented.”
Johnson did a really nice job of sinking on a corner route to intercept Joshua Dobbs’ pass to Jordan Addison in the second quarter. It looked like he might have baited Dobbs a little, and the catch was the easy part. Not sure about the taunting call at the end of the play against Kyler Gordon, but there are a couple of officiating things each week that are hard to figure.
Later, Johnson had what looked like it would be a pick-six and it went through his hands. Degree of difficulty? Not terribly hard. He wasn’t really breaking on the ball like the one that squirted through his hands the week before against Jared Goff in Detroit.
“I was looking at everything,” Johnson said when I asked if he was caught in the moment, looking at all the space in front of him. “I seen the ball. Grabbed the ball. Looked forward. Next thing I know, I don’t got the ball. So (shoot)!”
The elite guys at the position cash in plays like that. Johnson is having a career-best season. The Bears are better with him on the roster. I don’t know if the sides will be able to work something out, but I do know having a rookie that Hoke calls reliable helps.
5. Two-thirds of the way through the season, it looks like GM Ryan Poles was wise to extend Cole Kmet’s contract in August.
Kmet is the only NFL tight end to play in every regular-season game since the beginning of the 2020 season after former GM Ryan Pace selected him in the second round.
Here’s another tidbit that might surprise you: Since Week 8 of the 2022 season, Kmet’s 12 touchdown receptions are second in the league for tight ends behind George Kittle of the San Francisco 49ers. That’s right, Kmet has scored more than Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs in that span.
Here are the top five tight ends in touchdown receptions since Week 8 of 2022:
Kittle: 15
Kmet: 12
Kelce: 10
Dalton Schultz: 10
T.J. Hockenson: 8
The statistical nugget caught Kmet a little by surprise when I brought it to his attention.
“Wow,” he said.
Of those 12 touchdowns, all but two came in the red zone. He had a 50-yard touchdown reception last season in a 31-30 loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 10 at Soldier Field. He had a 22-yard score in Week 4 this year when the Denver Broncos blew the coverage.
The rest came inside the 20 — the “gold zone,” as offensive coordinator Luke Getsy calls it.
“I feel like there has been a bunch of different stuff I have been running,” Kmet said when I asked if there was any commonality to how he was getting open for scores. “A lot of it is off of run fakes, which is good for me just because I am so much a part of the run game, that helps me get open. That’s part of my game I lean into, and I know, especially in this type of offense, the more you block as a tight end, probably the more you are going to get open. There’s going to be more opportunities for you.
“Some of it is just them calling your number at the right time when you get the right matchup, the right look. The quarterback has to go to you because of the defense it presents. I definitely feel like Luke is taking advantage of my size and length in the red area and me using my physicality to my advantage. You see a lot of those plays where I block, slip (out), those types of deals.”
That’s exactly how he slipped open for the second of two scores two weeks ago in New Orleans. He sold a run play and sneaked behind the defense for an easy 9-yard throw from Tyson Bagent.
Kmet’s production — he had seven receptions for 43 yards Monday and has 56 catches for 482 yards on the season — reflects positively on the four-year, $50 million extension the team signed him to over the summer.
Kmet is viewed as a “Y” tight end, a blocker, with high-end receiving ability. He’s unlikely to put up gaudy statistics as a pass catcher, but he has developed into a reliable middle-of-the-field target.
Entering Week 12, Kmet was second among tight ends (minimum 25 targets) in a metric Pro Football Reference calls “receiving success rate.” It measures a successful catch as gaining 40% of the yards needed on first down, 60% on second down and 100% on third down. Kmet was at 65.6%, behind the Buffalo Bills’ Dalton Kincaid (68.6%). Bears quarterbacks had a 110.3 passer rating when targeting Kmet entering Week 12, up from 105.0 a year ago.
One factor that helped Kmet as he developed was playing alongside Jimmy Graham in his first two seasons, particularly when it comes to the red zone. Graham got the bulk of the targets near the goal line then, but it still was beneficial for Kmet.
“Jimmy is one of the greatest red-zone threats of all time,” Kmet said. “You learn how to use your body the right way and it’s more like a basketball player, and I didn’t play basketball for too long. I was getting with him to learn how you use your body, how you shed guys, how you keep your length without making it a (pass interference) call. There’s nuances to that I learned from him.
“You’ve got to just rep it in practice and get a feel for it with how your body is. You’ve got to get with the quarterback so he knows how it’s going to look as well. I picked up on that from him and kind of implemented it in my game the past couple years.”
6. A wide receiver has not been drafted No. 1 since 1996, when the New York Jets picked Keyshawn Johnson.
He went on to catch 64 touchdown passes in 167 games over an 11-year career, winning a Super Bowl with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and posting four 1,000-yard seasons and nine with 70 or more receptions.
In the 27 drafts since, 12 wide receivers have been top-five picks, the highest selections being Charles Rogers (2002) and Calvin Johnson (2007). Both went No. 2 to the Detroit Lions.
Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. stands at the top of the class for the position in the 2024 draft. Unless you’ve been on a small tropical island for the last several months, you’ve probably caught wind of the fascination many Bears fans have with the idea of the team selecting Harrison with one of its two first-round picks.
It doesn’t require much analysis to understand it’s a terrific idea. Harrison appears to have a very high floor and ceiling, and that’s what makes a prospect rare. If it weren’t for a strong crop of quarterbacks — the position many teams lurking near the top of the draft will be seeking to fill (maybe including the Bears) — there might be a lot of buzz about him being the first player taken. There’s a lot of ground to cover between now and April 25, but Harrison looks like a good bet to be the first non-quarterback selected.
The 6-foot-4, 205-pounder made five receptions for 118 yards and a touchdown Saturday in a 30-24 loss to Michigan. As much talent as Ohio State has had over the years, it’s wild that he’s the first player in program history to have consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons. Harrison has the school record with 15 100-yard games.
He made an acrobatic one-handed reception with his right arm Saturday for a 44-yard gain on a play during which Wolverines cornerback Will Johnson was flagged for pass interference for pinning Harrison’s left arm. He scored on a 14-yard fade ball, but it’s not like he took over the game — even after Michigan’s top cornerback, Johnson, was sidelined with a leg injury in the second half.
“I don’t know if I’ve ever gotten doubled more in a game than I did today,” Harrison said. “The safety help they had over the top or inside, I’ve never really seen anything like it until today (as well as) bracket coverage in the red zone that we got.”
Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord targeted Harrison nine times — two of them resulting in interceptions. Johnson slipped inside to beat Harrison to the spot on a short slant for a pick in the first quarter, and Rod Moore picked off a wobbly throw when McCord was under duress to end the game.
I didn’t think Harrison looked particularly involved as a run blocker, but that’s if you want to poke holes in him. He has the frame to be a monster on the edge in the running game, and you’d be drafting him to be an elite playmaker, not an asset in your running game.
Harrison, the son of Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison, has been a future first-round pick since he stepped foot on campus in Columbus, Ohio. I don’t know the last time there has been a more hyped wide receiver prospect. Maybe Calvin Johnson, but it’s not like Georgia Tech had a prominent offense nationally when he played there.
“Marvin is really good,” said a veteran national scout who has the Buckeyes in his territory. “I still struggle to say someone should take him with the first pick. You’ve still got to throw him the ball the right way. Is he the best ever? I’m not willing to go there yet. He’s pretty damn good, but it’s not like you watch the tape and say, ‘This guy is a complete unicorn.’
“He’s big and he’s super athletic and he makes some really good receptions. He’s not like a special athlete. He’s a really good athlete because he’s big. He’ll probably run 4.4. But he’s a little tight if you want to poke holes in the guy. You’ve still got to have a good team for him to be an elite player in the league. You’ve got to have a quarterback and an offensive line first. That’s just the receiver position in general.”
Another factor in the conversation about Harrison’s draft position is this looks to be a particularly strong class for receivers. It’s premature and I haven’t gone into draft mode, connecting with folks who have a lot more information than I do, but this could be one of the better classes in the last decade. LSU’s Malik Nabers, Washington’s Rome Odunze, Florida State’s Keon Coleman and Harrison’s Ohio State teammate Emeka Egbuka could be selected in the top half of Round 1.
I asked the national scout if he has written a better report on a wide receiver over the last decade than the one he polished up on Harrison.
“At that position, no, I have not,” he said.
Here are the top-five picks at wide receiver since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970:
No. 5: Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals, 2021
5: Corey Davis, Titans, 2017
4: Amari Cooper, Raiders, 2015
4: Sammy Watkins, Bills, 2014
5: Justin Blackmon, Jaguars, 2012
4: A.J. Green, Bengals, 2011
2: Calvin Johnson, Lions, 2007
3: Braylon Edwards, Browns, 2005
3: Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals, 2004
2: Charles Rogers, Lions, 2002
3: Andre Johnson, Texans, 2003
4: Peter Warrick, Bengals, 2000
1: Keyshawn Johnson, Jets, 1996
4: Michael Westbrook, Redskins, 1995
4: Desmond Howard, Redskins, 1992
1: Irving Fryar, Patriots, 1984
4: Kenny Jackson, Eagles, 1984
2: Johnny “Lam” Jones, Jets, 1980
5: Jerry Butler, Bills, 1979
3: Wes Chandler, Saints, 1978
4: Ahmad Rashad, Cardinals, 1972
4: J.D. Hill, Bills, 1971
7. The Bears will have more than enough salary-cap space to be as aggressive as they want to be with targeted free agents.
That’s true even if Ryan Poles spends good money to extend current players such as cornerback Jaylon Johnson, wide receiver Darnell Mooney and kicker Cairo Santos. Getting the cap situation righted was one of Poles’ first initiatives last season, and when you look at how the team has designed some of its bigger deals — contracts for defensive end Montez Sweat, tight end Cole Kmet and middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds — the Bears seem to be paving the way toward cap health for the foreseeable future.
Yes, that’s a lot easier to do when you’re not sinking huge money into a second (or third) contract for a franchise quarterback, but the way the deals are structured, the cap hits don’t soar as the players get deeper into the contract. The cap hits in the deals for Sweat and Kmet are flat as their contracts play out, and Edmunds’ actually dips from $22 million in 2024 to $17 million the following two seasons.
I’ve been clear in this space that free agency needs to be a means to upgrade the roster in a targeted spot or two but should not be a primary road to building the depth chart. The Bears got a close look Monday at one player who should be a top-five free agent (maybe No. 1 when you exclude quarterbacks such as Kirk Cousins) in Vikings defensive end Danielle Hunter. Hunter’s one-year contract for this season prevents the Vikings from using the franchise or transition tag to secure him. That means Hunter, 29, will reach the open market unless the Vikings extend him before mid-March.
I’m not sure the Bears want to sink big money into another edge rusher after trading for Sweat and extending him, but it’s something Poles and his staff will have to explore. Why? Adding Sweat to upgrade the defensive line was just the beginning. The Bears need a second threat off the edge to take the next step on defense.
Hunter, who had 1 1/2 sacks, three QB hits, one forced fumble and two tackles for a loss Monday night, has 13 1/2 sacks through Week 12, tying him with T.J. Watt of the Pittsburgh Steelers for the most in the NFL. He missed the 2020 season with a neck injury but has been about as consistent as they come at the position since 2018. In his last 68 regular-season games, including Monday, Hunter has 59 sacks. Add Hunter and all of a sudden the Bears would have a new version of Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn — with a younger and more consistent version of Quinn.
Other talented edge rushers are set to come out of contract, but there’s no way all of them become unrestricted free agents. Brian Burns (Carolina Panthers), Josh Allen (Jacksonville Jaguars) and Chase Young (San Francisco 49ers) are playing on expiring contracts.
My first thought on free agency, at least as it relates to the defense and after what happens with Johnson, is at tackle. The Bears need a consistent disruptive force on the interior, and it’s worth noting rookie Gervon Dexter has played better of late. He probably has benefited from the arrival of Sweat and experience as the season has worn on.
“In some points of my game, I feel like I am getting better,” Dexter said. “Just understanding more what is happening to me. That’s where my biggest improvement is — just knowing what is happening to me and what types of blocks I am getting and stuff. That’s been my biggest improvement.”
The action happens lightning-quick on the interior of the line, and rookie tackles can struggle to understand opposing blocking concepts. Dexter is incredibly powerful at 6-foot-6 and 312 pounds, but it’s not easy to win with strength in the NFL without technique, and playing with good leverage and pad level is a challenge for defensive linemen at his height. While he could get away with raw strength and brawn without A-plus technique at times in college at Florida, those snaps are harder to come by in the NFL.
“That is still something I need to improve on,” Dexter said. “It’s getting better. But I still need to improve. Just working to win my one-on-ones, which I have been doing a little bit better at.”
The Bears also have gotten a little more creative with Dexter. He took a snap at left end in Week 11 in Detroit. Depending on how Dexter and fellow rookie Zacch Pickens close out the season, the Bears have to look closely at defensive tackles in free agency.
Chris Jones of the Chiefs is expected to be on the market and could price himself out of Kansas City. The Baltimore Ravens’ Justin Madubuike would be ideal — he’s 26 and has 10 sacks — but seems destined to be secured with the franchise tag. Christian Wilkins of the Miami Dolphins is also intriguing. He has a career-high 6 1/2 sacks but also could be a candidate to be tagged or extended.
On offense, the Bears will need to evaluate centers. This is a spot where they perhaps could sign a free agent and draft a center and allow a competition to play out. If they opt for a veteran and sink good money into the position, Connor Williams of the Dolphins might be the top available option.
Just keep Hunter in mind. Provided he remains healthy, he will be a hot commodity. I don’t know what the Bears’ motivation will be to spend on another edge rusher. I do believe it has to be discussed.
8. No one is more invested in preventing the Bears from owning the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft than former special teams coordinator Chris Tabor.
He was named interim head coach of the Carolina Panthers on Monday morning after owner David Tepper fired first-year coach Frank Reich. Tepper fired coach Matt Rhule during the 2022 season.
Tabor takes over with six games remaining and the Panthers owning the worst record in the league at 1-10. They have only one game left against a team with a current winning record: a Week 17 trip to play the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3). They are on the road against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7) this week, followed by a trip to play the New Orleans Saints (5-6). Then they have home games versus the Atlanta Falcons (5-6) and Green Bay Packers (5-6), and they host the Bucs in Week 18
It’s a big opportunity for Tabor, who served as the Bears interim coach in place of Matt Nagy (who was sidelined by COVID-19) during a 33-22 loss to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 8 of the 2021 season. Special teams coordinators around the league will be pulling for him. They struggle to get opportunities for promotion, so anytime a special teams coach gets a chance, it helps shine a little light on their work.
The Bears could have kept Tabor when Matt Eberflus was hired, but Eberflus’ primary goal was to hire Rich Bisaccia, who was coming off a stint as interim coach of the Las Vegas Raiders. Eberflus hoped Tabor would wait to see how things played out. In the interim, Rhule offered Tabor a job with the Panthers, and he took it.
Bisaccia, with whom Eberflus had worked previously in Dallas, was hired by the Packers to run their special teams, and the Bears hired Richard Hightower as special teams coordinator. Tabor has had two stints with the Bears. He was the assistant under special teams coordinator Dave Toub for three seasons beginning in 2008, and he returned as coordinator under Nagy from 2018 to 2021.
The Bears ranked seventh in Football Outsiders’ special teams rankings in 2021 and were ninth in the points system devised by longtime NFL writer Rick Gosselin. It was the fourth consecutive year they produced a Pro Bowl player. Returners Jakeem Grant, Cordarrelle Patterson and Tarik Cohen were all chosen under Tabor.
Now Tabor is fixated on helping the Panthers get a couple of wins — which would be an unwelcome development for his former employer.
9. The good news is it appears highly unlikely the first-round pick the Bears will receive from the Panthers will be outside the top three.
The Arizona Cardinals (2-10) and New England Patriots (2-9) are the only two-win teams.
I thought the return of quarterback Kyler Murray would spark the Cardinals, and it did in his first game back, a 25-23 win over the Atlanta Falcons. But the Cardinals lost a close game to the Houston Texans in Week 11 and were blown out 37-14 by the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. The Dec. 24 game against the Bears at Soldier Field looms huge for the draft order.
The Patriots started quarterback Mac Jones again Sunday in a dispiriting 10-7 loss to the New York Giants and wound up benching him for Bailey Zappe. They have a relatively tough slate to close the season; the worst opponent is the Week 18 finale at home against the New York Jets. The Patriots will be in the mix for the No. 1 pick if the Panthers find a way to win a game.
The Giants (4-8) have removed themselves from the race for the No. 1 pick for now after Sunday’s win, in which Patriots rookie Chad Ryland missed a 35-yard field goal to force overtime with six seconds remaining. While most figure the Giants will target a quarterback in the draft — they have been rolling deep on the road scouting college QBs — it would take a huge turn of events for them to be in play for the top pick.
The Bears’ win makes them the seventh team in the league going into Week 13 with four wins. That means a lot of stuff can shake out in the stretch run. The current draft order from Tankathon.com after Monday night’s game has the Bears owning the Nos. 1 and 4 picks based on the current standings and tiebreakers.
Bears (from Panthers)
Cardinals 2-10
Patriots 2-9
Bears 4-8
Commanders 4-8
Giants 4-8
Buccaneers 4-7
Jets 4-7
Chargers 4-7
Titans 4-7
What do the majority of these teams have in common? With the obvious exception of the Chargers, who have Justin Herbert, most are in desperate need of a young quarterback to alter the trajectory of the franchise.
10. Cairo Santos is so locked in right now, he doesn’t need to go to the tablets or video to diagnose what’s wrong.
The Bears kicker knew right away what was amiss at the end of the first possession when he missed wide right from 48 yards, only his second miss of the season.
“Sometimes my miss is a push to the right,” he said. “It’s just the hip not clearing, timing the way it normally times up. It’s just the tempo of the swing. I felt like I had been pushing it. Indoors, it bothers me when I miss those kind of kicks because it’s supposed to be easier for an outdoor, wind kicker. It’s a kick that I need to make. It’s on me.”
Santos provided the only scoring for the Bears, hitting from 25 yards in the second quarter, 39 yards in the third quarter and 55 yards in the fourth quarter before the game-winner from 30. He is now 6-for-6 from 50 yards and deeper this season and 10-for-11 since the start of last season. That’s noteworthy for a guy who may have been questioned about his leg strength in the past.
Are there kickers with stronger legs? Sure. But Santos has proved to be extremely reliable and is hitting the longer kicks now. His only miss from long range in the last two years was a 56-yarder that went off the crossbar last season in Atlanta.
“Even though last year I did make a lot of 50-yarders (4-for-5), it wasn’t the long ones,” he said. “It was like long of 51. But it wasn’t the longer ones, like 53 to 55 and above, I feel like I hadn’t been so good. I never doubted the leg strength. It was more the ball striking. And this year, that 55, it was dead center. Strong. That is what I worked on.”
Santos didn’t question his leg strength. It was just striking the ball right. Like a golfer who can drive 300 yards when his mechanics are on and the ball is down the middle of the fairway, Santos needed his mechanics to be right.
“It’s like using your leg strength and that speed and also hitting that ball in the middle of the club,” he said. “That is what maximizes the power. Sometimes if you swing too hard, you are going to catch it more on your toe or off the sweet spot on the foot, and it’s not going to maximize the distance or the accuracy. It’s just that, being precise. I have done that on the 50-pluses this year better than I have ever done.”
10a. Rookie Darnell Wright played a pretty nice game and handled a tough assignment in the Vikings’ Danielle Hunter. He’s had some tough tasks this season and seems to be growing.
10b. Defensive end DeMarcus Walker dominated Vikings tight end Josh Oliver so thoroughly on one play, he drew two penalties. The officials threw a flag for holding on Oliver, and because he didn’t hold well enough, quarterback Joshua Dobbs was penalized for intentional grounding. Walker also got credit for three QB hits.
10c. Word in the locker room was coach Matt Eberflus announced game balls for the entire team.
