The anticipation surrounding Max Scherzer, a future Hall of Famer, taking the mound for tonight’s Game 3 of the World Series has led to Texas being somewhat overvalued in this situation.
Why? Because Scherzer has shown a decline this season and has encountered struggles during these playoffs. In two games against Houston in the ALCS, the Astros managed to score more runs (7) than Scherzer had strikeouts (6).
On the other hand, Arizona has secured victories in all of Brandon Pfaadt’s starts this postseason.
The rookie right-hander has found success against hitters from both sides of the plate. Notably, he has an impressive 20.6% swinging strike rate this postseason. His fastball-sweeper combo against right-handers, along with his increased usage of the changeup against lefties, makes him a versatile threat. His sweeper has been particularly effective with a 34% whiff rate.
One of the remarkable aspects of Pfaadt’s approach is his confidence and desire to be the go-to pitcher when the game is on the line. Manager Torey Lovullo’s shrewd decisions about pitcher usage have complemented Pfaadt’s performance throughout this postseason.
In addition to Pfaadt, the Diamondbacks hold a bullpen advantage over the Rangers, with relievers like Ryan Thompson, Kevin Ginkel and Paul Sewald almost unhittable in these playoffs.
While the Rangers possess explosive power and the capability to put up runs quickly via the the home run, Arizona has suffocated its opponents with contact and speed. In a style reminiscent of their regular-season performance, the Diamondbacks have utilized their running game effectively, tallying 21 stolen bases across 14 postseason games, with five already in the first two games of this series.
Although Pfaadt’s MLB debut saw the Rangers scoring seven runs against him in early May, it’s essential to recognize that he has since undergone significant development. Subsequent to that game, he revamped his pitching setup, altering his position on the rubber and incorporating a sinker into his repertoire.
All signs point to Pfaadt’s current form, and the prediction is for him to hand Texas its first road loss of the playoffs.
Pick: Diamondbacks moneyline (-104)