McHenry County College instructor Paul Hamill is known as the weather guru around the community college’s Crystal Lake campus. Since being hired in 1997, the Dubuque, Iowa-native and meteorologist has turned what started out as a small room with one computer into a full-blown weather station with more than 12 monitors and rooftop equipment. TribLocal sat down with MCC’s weather expert to figure out just how predictions are made and how the winter season is going thus far.
Triblocal: What got you interested in weather?
Paul Hamill: It all start when I was 5 years old when a tornado hit my aunt’s farm near Galena. It was the coolest thing I had ever seen, but she forced us all down into the basement for safety reasons. I was so upset. After it was over I remember coming back outside and seeing so much damage everywhere. I couldn’t believe it. I always knew I wanted to be a meteorologist from that point on. I think my dad wanted me to be an accountant. That just didn’t seem as much fun.
TL: Was the unseasonably warm start to the winter season surprising?
Hamill: It’s pretty odd how warm we started the winter considering the dire forecasts we had. It shows you the unpredictable nature of our science and how inexact it can be. We never could have predicted the way this winter started. We definitely thought it was going to start getting colder sooner. La Nina should have given us a colder winter but it didn’t because arctic isolation was stopping it. Things seem a little bit more back to normal now.
TL: Now that things weather patterns are more normal for this time of year, what does the rest of winter look like?
Hamill: Predictions have been revised a bit to near to slightly above normal temperatures, which is shocking compared to what we originally predicted. I could make a prediction about the rest of winter, but I wouldn’t have any confidence in it. If we are right 51-percent of the time, that is pretty good. It’s a tough game. That is what drives you. You want to know why you can’t solve it.
TL: What type of summer can we expect?
Hamill: Sun spot numbers are up, so we should have a pretty warm summer. Will it happen? There is a good statistical possibility based on solar cycles.
TL: What is your favorite meteorological phenomenon?
Hamill: I am a snow nut. I performed my graduate studies in Antarctica, and that was the first time I ever saw thundersnow. It was absolutely amazing — a downpour of snow with thunder and lightning. I was hooked on it after studying it.
TL: Is predicting the weather easy?
Hamill: Absolutely not, and that is what is so great about it. Could you imagine if you could figure out exactly what it was going to be like outside? You would definitely be in high demand. Heating and electric companies would know exactly how much power to use. It would be a big deal. We are quite accurate on forecasts up to five days, but beyond that, the accuracy decreased rapidly.
